Two conversations with New Yorkers from the last day of March 2022, a few months before I was “permanently suspended” from Twitter for the second time, are very good examples of how people were thinking about the New York City mass casualty event of spring 2020.
Much (but not all) of what I said then is consistent with what I would say, and have shown to be the case per available data and evidence, now. On some points, I changed my views because what I later learned compelled me to do so.
These interactions preceded my arriving at a “no pandemic, no sudden-spreading novel coronavirus causing a new disease” position, the idea that the NYC all-cause daily death curve could be fraudulent, and a strong belief that the COVID-19 event was planned, with spread/transmission staged and involving democide.
Dialogues screen-captured and reproduced below.
Conversation 1
Jessica Hockett, 31 March 2022: People who lived in NYC in spring 2020 have told me about hearing ambulances 24/7. I have some wonderings about that, but my first question is this: Can you place when the incessant ambulances began — what month and week?
Trish the Dish: It wasn’t until after the lockdown. I was living in the burbs but I was in the city every day until March 12, 2020. If your assumption is that the sirens were caused by the nursing home debacle – I’m inclined to agree.
Jessica Hockett: I’m just wondering why and how COVID is such a patient and courteous virus. Super polite to wait for lockdown before creating any excess.
Victoria Raskin: I’m not entirely sure what you are thinking regarding covid/lockdowns, etc. I’m definitely interested. But timing doesn’t look contrary to the idea that lockdown was imposed (at an abundance of caution perhaps) once they saw cases starting to go up (and there were way more).
Jessica Hockett: There were way more cases, yet we don’t see excess until a week after lockdown?
Victoria Raskin: Well, there’s a gap between you get sick and you die. Lockdown was in effect March 22. You see the first increase in excess death the week of March 21. I don’t really know what it is that you are thinking.
Trish the Dish: Lockdown was in effect March 16th. It’s seared into my brain.
Victoria Raskin: Yeah I wasn’t sure but I found that the “PAUSE” order went into effect March 22. Schools closed 16, maybe that is what you remembered.
Trish the Dish: No. The bars and gyms were closed at 8 pm on Monday night on March 16, 2020. My bf and I got booted out of the bar by the cops.
Victoria Raskin: Well, a lot of places might have reacted before, but the lockdown (closure of non-essential business) went into effect March 22 at 8pm.
Jessica Hockett:
Victoria Raskin: And the order declared on March 20 was effective March 22 8 pm. I still don’t know what’s the point. If the point is lockdowns don’t stop transmission, I agree. Does it slow down transmission? I don’t know, don’t know if there are good studies for this.
Jessica Hockett: I bring up the absurdity of NYC mortality in spring 2020 every few months because there has been little to no accountability for human interventions that killed of thousands [and] are still blamed on the virus “hitting New York hard”
Jessica Hockett: The point is lockdown caused that outrageous mortality event.
Victoria Raskin: Ok. Wow. I see. How do you think the happened? What was the mechanism? I mean, just arguing for the “official story” (again, I have no stand bc I know little about viruses) isn’t it possible that there’s a tipping point in which cases are high enough that trans[mission] turns exponential?
Jessica Hockett: Fear was the primary mechanism. For starters, they told people to stay away from the hospitals.
Victoria Raskin: I see. I do agree that excess mortality is not a good stat as “how hard covid hit” as it modified everything, including people dying excessively for other health issues (and lower others also, traffic-related comes to mind). But you also think covid deaths were higher because lockdown?
Jessica Hockett: I think many deaths were attributed to covid that had very little to do with the actual virus playing a natural role.
Conversation 2
Jessica Hockett, 31 March 2022: People who lived in NYC in spring 2020 have told me about hearing ambulances 24/7. I have some wonderings about that, but my first question is this: Can you place when the incessant ambulances began — what month and week?
Andrew Gutmann: I definitely remember an increase of sirens in Manhattan end March/beginning of April 2020. But understand that though cases (we must infer cases from hospitalizations and deaths) were already dropping before any restrictions, including lockdowns, were in place.
Jessica Hockett: No excess deaths til after lockdowns. Think about that.
Andrew Gutmann: No doubt policy (nursing homes and ventilators) contributed to excess death. However, deaths lag infections by something like 4 weeks. Covid almost certainly hit February and early March, which means deaths peak late March/early April, regardless of policies.
Jessica Hockett: So what are you going to say when it’s eventually acknowledged that covid was circulating in the U.S. in 2019?
Andrew Gutmann: That’s certainly plausible but I still don’t think it was widespread in NYC until Feb/March.
Jessica Hockett: But you’re only saying that because that’s when excess mortality began (late March), with lockdowns beginning mid-March.
Andrew Gutmann: Yes that and the fact that pretty much everyone I know had a strange cold in February. But I’m open to alternatives. What are you suggesting? Why did lockdowns cause such significant mortality, other than nursing home deaths and avoidable ventilator deaths?
Jessica Hockett: Most nursing home resident deaths occurred at the hospitals, far as I can tell. But yes that policies and neglect killed those folks. So covid was everywhere in NYC in February, yet no excess mortality?
Andrew Gutmann: Yes, ~4 week lag from infection to death. Also likely that respiratory viruses spread among the active and healthy first so we wouldn’t see any significant mortality for a while.
Jessica Hockett: We removed the healthy shield. That’s the point. No City in the world has a one-month mortality event like NYC April 2020. That was human intervention and panic — not the natural or inevitable work of SARS-CoV-2. Cuomo really did a number on how people think about this.
Andrew Gutmann: I agree 100% that Cuomo’s policies contributed significantly to the high death toll. I’m just saying I don’t think the data supports lockdowns as the only explanation. NYC is unique in a lot of ways, at least in the U.S.
Jessica Hockett: Unique how? Excess deaths didn’t occur until lockdowns.
Andrew Gutmann: No other city in the US has the combination of density, reliance on mass transit and the olds/sick/unhealthy population + int’l hub. I’m as anti-lockdowner as anyone here. I think that what you are suggesting contributed. I just don’t think it can be the only explanation.
Jessica Hockett: Provide another one using data.
I didn’t retain a reply from Andrew Gutmann to my last remark. X users who see one can email it to WoodHouse76@proton.me
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