Striking similarity an ocean apart
Jessica Hockett, PhD
Note to 15 September 2026 readers: This post is adapted from a Note published on Substack in August 2025. I do not have the exact date on which I made the observation — also shared by email with two colleagues around the same time — so I have used 15 August for archival purposes.
The timing, rise, peak, and decline of daily all-cause deaths in New York City and deaths in England with COVID-19 listed anywhere on the death record are strikingly similar. They move almost in step.
It’s like looking in a mirror.
The NYC data is from the city department of health. The England graph is from Carl Heneghan’s witness statement submitted to the UK COVID Inquiry (page 56.)
Crude imposition of one image over the other shown below:
Both curves are elegant enough to be models — and illustrate why digital legerdemain of various kinds should not be excluded from the list of possible “causes” of the spring 2020 mortality spikes seen in official numbers, whether provisional or finalized.
Daily time-series data make more visible what weekly and monthly figures tend to obscure. If curves fail to exhibit expected stochasticity that factors in real life tend to produce, under a range of conditions, and look too smooth to be real, there is little reason to accept them as necessarily true and every reason to suspect predictive and/or reverse engineering.
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